Philip Mai, Toronto Metropolitan University; Anatoliy Gruzd, Toronto Metropolitan University, and William Hollingshead, Toronto Metropolitan University
Amid a Canadian federal election campaign focused in part on the country’s sovereignty, Canada’s two leading political parties are taking sharply different approaches to their advertising strategies. A close analysis of digital ad impressions on Facebook and Instagram reveals that the battleground is not just ideological, but demographic and geographic.
While both the Conservative and Liberal parties invest ad dollars in Canada’s most populous provinces, their strategies reveal a deeper story: Conservatives bet on Gen Z and Millennial voters, while Liberals double down on older voters and those in Francophone Canada.
We first observed these divergent strategies as part of an analysis conducted by the Ted Rogers School of Management Social Media Lab at Toronto Metropolitan University. As part of our Election Transparency and Accountability initiative, we examined Canadian political ad spending on Meta-owned platforms Facebook and Instagram, using PoliDashboard, the open-source platform we developed.
We conducted a detailed analysis of the ad impression data for the campaigns of all major parties. Here, we focus our findings on online ads purchased by the Liberal and Conservative parties, the current frontrunners in the polls.
Conservatives woo younger voters
Based on impressions data from Facebook and Instagram during March 23-30, the week after the election announced, there was a clear generational divide in digital outreach. The Conservatives devoted much of their messaging to Canadians under 45, while the Liberals appeared to focus more on those 55 and older.
A significant portion of Conservative Party Facebook and Instagram ad impressions came from men aged 25 to 34, who accounted for 16 per cent of all Conservative ad views. Additional impressions came from men aged 18 to 24, women aged 25 to 34, and women aged 35 to 44; each of these groups made up 10 per cent of the total impressions. This suggests an apparent effort by the Conservatives to connect with Gen Z and millennial voters.
In contrast, Liberal ads garnered higher impressions among older demographics, with women aged 65 and over accounting for the largest share (21 per cent) of total impressions. Women aged 55 to 64 and men over 65 each contributed 12 per cent of Liberal ad impressions. This distribution points to a strategic emphasis on older voters, a group known for reliably turning out on election day.
While traditional wisdom suggests that young adults favour progressive politics and parties, public polling suggests that young Canadians are increasingly embracing conservatism amid a housing and affordability crisis. The Conservatives appear poised to channel young peoples’ economic dissatisfaction into votes, using online advertising to reach them.
Meanwhile, the Liberals appear to be consolidating support among those who have a longer history of voting, especially older women, who represent the largest age and gender cohort that is likely to vote for the party. It’s a tale of two electorates, and two very different strategies for winning.
Impression data alone doesn’t confirm explicit age or gender targeting, nor does it guarantee support. Sometimes, a demographic simply has more affinity for a party’s content, leading to more impressions. These numbers can reflect both how parties aim their ads and how voters gravitate toward what resonates with them most.
Regional divides
The differences between the parties extend beyond age and gender, and into geographic territory. Both campaigns prioritize ad spending in Canada’s most populous provinces — British Columbia, Ontario and Québec — but the way they distribute their focus tells its own story.
The Conservatives receive a larger share of their ad impressions from British Columbia, with 17 per cent of their total ad impressions; in comparison, the Liberals received just 11 per cent. The contrast is even sharper in Ontario, where 54 per cent of all Conservative ad impressions are concentrated, versus only 31 per cent for the Liberals.
This difference is likely a deliberate strategic targeting tactic. Ontario, home to 122 federal ridings (with about 36 per cent of all seats in the House of Commons), is a pivotal battleground. The Conservatives’ strategy appears to hinge on flipping key seats in the province, particularly in suburban and outer suburban areas that could decide the election. Combined with their reach with younger voters, this approach signals an all-in effort to gain ground where it counts most.
The Liberal Party, meanwhile, is doubling down in Québec — one of the largest and most culturally distinct provinces in the country — and where the Liberals are clearly on the offensive. Twenty-nine per cent of Liberal ad impressions are located in the province, compared to just three per cent for the Conservatives.
Québec has long been a stronghold for the Liberals, particularly in urban areas like Montréal. While the province can be volatile and deeply influenced by local issues, the Liberals’ heavy advertising push suggests they’re working to defend the 33 seats they currently hold and possibly add a couple of new seats.
Two parties, two visions
Liberals and Conservatives are both vocally aligned in their repudiation of United States President Donald Trump’s frequent allusion to Canada becoming the “51st state,” a sentiment shared by an overwhelming majority of the Canadian public.
With external pressure mounting from Trump’s tariff threats and democratic norms being tested across the border, this election isn’t just about policies or parties: it’s about protecting Canada’s independence, values and place in the world.
However, the trends we’ve identified paint a picture of two distinct campaigns playing to different strengths and chasing different voters. The Conservatives are betting on young, digitally engaged Canadians, especially in Ontario. The Liberals are reinforcing their support among older voters, and looking to hold ground in Québec, where cultural identity and party loyalty still carry significant weight.
Of course, ad impressions are only one part of the equation. Factors like grassroots efforts, candidate appeal and regional dynamics also play a major role. Still, the ad impression numbers provide a unique glimpse into each campaign’s strategy, and reveal the part of Canada each party believes it must win over.
Philip Mai, Co-director and Senior Researcher, Social Media Lab, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto Metropolitan University; Anatoliy Gruzd, Professor and Canada Research Chair in Privacy-Preserving Digital Technologies, Toronto Metropolitan University, and William Hollingshead, Postdoctoral research fellow, Social Media Lab, Toronto Metropolitan University
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Supplementary Analysis of Advertising Spending by Canada’s Other Major Parties
NDP, Bloc Québécois, and Green Party Keeping Their Own
Compared to the Liberals and Conservatives, the NDP, Bloc Québécois, and Green Party receive only a tiny share of the ad impressions on Facebook and Instagram, though they also spend significantly less on targeted advertising (see table below). Overall, our analysis revealed that each of these three parties is focused on mobilizing its core constituencies. This approach signals realism and restraint, as each party seeks to maintain its footing in Parliament. However, several demographic and geographic trends distinguish who and where each party is garnering attention from.
The NDP’s digital ads drew significantly more impressions from women than men across all ages. The NDP ads, like the Liberals, tend to reach older women, with women aged 55-64 and 65+ comprising 14% and 25%, respectively, of the party’s total impressions (see the chart below).
The Bloc focuses on Québec’s more senior population, where 79% of the party’s total impressions come from men and women aged 55+.
Finally, ad impressions for the Greens come from across all demographic groups, slightly skewed towards younger men, peaking for men aged 25-34 (14%).
These trends highlight several observations. First, the NDP’s ads generated notably more impressions among middle-aged and older women (55+) than other demographic groups, despite appearing primed to vote Liberal Red. This could be one pathway in which Red seats flip Orange in ridings with an aging population. Second, the Bloc has concentrated its ads on middle-aged and elderly Québecers. Since this age group has historically high voter turnout, targeting them could be an effective way for the Bloc to maintain support in key ridings. Finally, the Greens’ ads reached a higher proportion of young men, which could influence voter engagement, particularly in urban areas, which the Greens have electorally strategized for in recent years.
Geographic data paints a similar picture of “status quo” for the NDP, Bloc, and Green Party (see chart below). The NDP proportionally drew their most impressions from Ontario (41%), BC (24%), and Alberta (11%). The Bloc, to no surprise, received virtually all of its impressions from Québec (99%). Lastly, the Greens received most of their ad impressions from Canada’s most populous provinces, including Ontario (41%), BC (22%), and Québec (22%).
As the Bloc does not run candidates outside of Québec, it is sensible to understand why they would seek to only target Québecers. For the NDP, it suggests that impressions are centralized to locations where they previously held power in Parliament, including Ontario (5 seats), BC (12 seats), and Alberta (2 seats). Lastly, the Greens’ higher ad impressions among young men may also reflect the party’s strategic focus on urban areas, where younger demographics are more concentrated and where support for stronger environmental protections and energy policy reforms tends to be higher. As the election has become a two-horse race, where support for the NDP has dwindled in recent months, it has become evident that each party will need to turn their attention to “small” victories and winnable battlegrounds.